LONDON (Realist English). The Malta-flagged tanker Agioi Fanendes, loaded with Russian diesel fuel, has set course for New York. According to Bloomberg, citing ship-tracking data, the vessel left the Baltic port of Primorsk on October 22 and is expected to arrive in the US on November 7. On board is about 40,000 tonnes of ultra-low-sulfur diesel, equivalent to roughly 300,000–320,000 barrels.
Deal parameters
The supply is being carried out under an agreement reached by Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump on October 9. According to Trump’s statement, Russia committed to immediately export 300,000 tonnes of diesel, another 500,000 tonnes in November, and 1 million tonnes “shortly thereafter.” Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak suggested that by the end of the year Russia could increase exports to 3–3.5 million tonnes per month.
To implement the deal, the US Treasury issued OFAC General License No. 135, authorizing the sale, delivery, and import of Russian diesel until April 7, 2027. In response, Russia partially lifted its own ban on diesel exports, introduced earlier to stabilize the domestic market.
Goal — elections, but effect limited
The deal has an obvious political backdrop: US diesel prices rose from $3.46 per gallon in January to $6.18 in mid-October, creating risks for Republicans ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. However, analysts are skeptical about this supply’s ability to change the situation.
According to EPRINC, even full implementation of the agreement (about 4.8 million tonnes) would cover only 13% of the global diesel deficit, which the International Energy Agency estimates at 1.6 million barrels per day.
The reduction in US retail prices will be “cents” — about 34 cents at best, to $5.84 per gallon. As Kpler notes, a noticeable easing of prices would require an additional 400,000 barrels per day, whereas the first cargo is equivalent to only ~73,000 barrels per day if spread over a month.
Moreover, according to EPRINC, Russia has virtually no free volumes: diesel export potential has fallen from 1.18 million barrels per day in January 2024 to ~240,000 barrels per day in October 2026, while almost 40% of refining capacity is idle after Ukrainian drone strikes.
Supplies are likely to be redirected from existing buyers — Turkey and Brazil — and will not add new supply to the global market. The US itself is the largest diesel exporter (~1.4 million barrels per day), and the need to import Russian fuel looks economically illogical.
Legal risks
The deal also raises questions from the perspective of US legislation. A bipartisan group of senators led by Jeanne Shaheen stated that Trump’s decision to allow imports of Russian diesel “directly contradicts” the 2022 law banning imports of Russian energy, and that the administration did not conduct the necessary consultations with Congress.
According to expert Ellen Wald, legally importing Russian petroleum products into the US is possible only if a number of conditions are met, including confirmation of the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, so a supply in October or November is “impossible without repealing or replacing the current law.”
The first supply of Russian diesel to the US is more of a political gesture than an economic decision. Trump is demonstrating to voters that he is acting to lower fuel prices, while Moscow receives symbolic recognition of the legitimacy of its supplies bypassing the sanctions regime.
However, structural constraints — the decline in Russian export potential, high freight costs, legal barriers, and the insignificant volume compared to the global deficit — mean that even with full implementation, the deal will not solve the problem of high prices.
For the market, this is another factor of uncertainty, and for Ukraine and European allies, a signal that Washington is prepared to sacrifice the unity of the sanctions coalition for domestic political objectives.
